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Bitcoin at $1,000,000 by 2030
Executive Summary
The KAYLA thesis is grounded in a simple but often misunderstood principle:
Bitcoin’s price is determined by its marginal, liquid supply, not by its total outstanding supply.
Over the past several years, and accelerating since 2023, Bitcoin has undergone a structural shift. A growing portion of supply is being absorbed by long-term holders, ETFs, and corporate treasuries, effectively removing it from active circulation.
If this trend continues, Bitcoin enters a regime of structural scarcity, where price behavior becomes convex and increasingly sensitive to marginal demand.
Under these conditions, a Bitcoin price of $1,000,000 by 2030 is not speculative excess, but a plausible outcome that does not require universal adoption or full monetary substitution.
Price Formation: Stock vs. Float
Bitcoin has a maximum supply of 21 million units.
However, this figure is economically irrelevant for price formation.
Markets do not price total stock.
They price available float.
Empirical on-chain data shows that:
Only 2 to 3 million BTC are currently held on exchanges or otherwise readily liquid
This liquid supply has been declining consistently
An increasing share of BTC is held by entities with long-term, strategic mandates
As a result, Bitcoin’s market price is discovered on a small and shrinking subset of total supply.
The Relevant Market Capitalization Is Already Small
At approximately 2.7 million liquid BTC and a price near $90,000, Bitcoin’s effective market capitalization is roughly $240 to $300 billion.
This figure matters far more than the headline market cap based on 21 million coins.
Implications:
Price sensitivity to incremental capital inflows is high
Comparisons to gold’s total market capitalization are misleading
Substantial price appreciation does not require trillions of dollars of new capital.
Total market cap is an accounting metric.
Float-adjusted market cap is the pricing mechanism.
Structural Accumulation by Treasury-Style Buyers
The dominant marginal buyers in the current cycle differ materially from prior cycles.
They include:
Spot Bitcoin ETFs
Public and private companies allocating Bitcoin to treasury
Long-duration funds and family offices
These buyers share three defining traits:
No leverage
Long investment horizon
Low propensity to sell into volatility
Bitcoin acquired by these entities is not recycled back into the market.
It is structurally removed from the liquid float.
This represents a shift from cyclical speculation to permanent balance-sheet absorption.
Convexity and Regime Change
As liquid supply contracts:
Each additional dollar of demand acquires fewer units
Sellers demand increasingly higher prices
Price elasticity of supply declines sharply
The result is not linear appreciation, but price convexity.
Historically liquid markets transition into constrained markets, and eventually into discontinuous regimes, characterized by rapid repricing triggered by relatively modest demand shocks.
Bitcoin is entering this phase.
Conditions for a $1,000,000 Bitcoin Scenario
The $1,000,000 scenario by 2030 does not rely on extreme assumptions.
It requires the following conditions to broadly hold:
Liquid BTC supply declines toward 0.8 to 1.2 million units
Institutional and treasury accumulation continues at a measured pace
Bitcoin maintains its role as a non-sovereign store of value
No fundamental technological or regulatory impairment emerges
Under these assumptions:
A $1,000,000 BTC implies an effective market cap near $1 trillion
This is consistent with a mature, globally relevant asset class
And does not require Bitcoin to fully displace gold or sovereign debt
KAYLA Positioning
KAYLA does not operate on price targets or market timing.
The strategy is defined by:
Progressive accumulation
No leverage
No tactical selling
Long-term capital preservation and growth
The $1,000,000 thesis represents an upper-bound outcome, not a requirement for success.
KAYLA succeeds if:
Liquid supply continues to contract
Bitcoin adoption at the balance-sheet level expands
And scarcity increasingly dominates market structure
Conclusion
A $1,000,000 Bitcoin by 2030 is neither guaranteed nor speculative fantasy.
It is a logical outcome of a market where:
Supply is structurally constrained
Demand is institutionally anchored
And price is set at the margin, not on aggregate stock.
The KAYLA thesis is not built on enthusiasm.
It is built on scarcity, discipline, and time.
In capital markets, time remains the most underpriced asset.
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